Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Is QE2 Failing?

All the reasons for the Fed’s QE2 program have now been explained; they are trying to lower the value of the US dollar, lower long term interest rates, and that they are trying to avoid deflation. A quick look at the US dollar and 30 year bond charts, since early November, show that exactly the opposite is happening.

The US dollar has appreciated and bond prices have gone down; yields have gone up. Does this mean that the program is not having its intended effects? Or does it mean that the markets already anticipated the Fed’s move and moved before the Fed announcement? I know it may be early, but so far, so bad.

I also would not rule out that other countries, particularly China, may be behind this. China has been vocal and has stated that they are not happy with the Fed’s program. Maybe China is dumping some of its bond holdings and buying dollars? Who knows? …but I would not rule this out as a possibility. China has been recently flexing its economic muscle and they have even downgraded US bond credit ratings, so it’s not impossible that they are moving to counter the Fed’s actions.


  1. Interesting points...I wrote about this some time ago http://theopeningrange.blogspot.com/2010/10/everyone-has-strategy-until-i-hit-them.html

    "Everyone has a plan until I hit them" -mike tyson

    Thats the thing with trading and investing you can't say a+b=C all the time, you never know who is in the market.


  2. QE maybe failing in keeping the dollar down and treasuries up, But the market does not seem to care at the moment which seems bullish? Bad news (qe not having the exact result it was designed to do) good action (markets shrugging off perceived bad news) ?